Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020
Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020
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DOI：
10.3390/jcm9030789
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Kuniya, Toshikazu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kuniya, Toshikazu
日本于2020年1月15日报告了首例2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例，报告病例数日益增加。本研究的目的是利用2020年1月15日至2月29日的实时数据预测日本COVID-19的流行高峰。考虑到由于感染人群的不完全识别的不确定性，我们采用著名的SEIR房室模型进行预测。利用Poisson噪声的最小二乘估计方法，估计日本流行的基本再生产数为R 0 =2.6（95%CI，2.4-2.8），流行高峰可能出现在初夏和仲夏。此外，我们还得到了以下流行病学见解：（1）基本流行规模不太可能受到实际感染人群识别率的影响;（2）干预对延迟流行高峰有积极作用;（3）需要在相对较长的时间内进行干预，才能有效地降低最终的流行规模。
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is R0=2.6 (95%CI, 2.4-2.8) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.