How can we learn about developmental processes from cross-sectional studies, or can we?
How can we learn about developmental processes from cross-sectional studies, or can we?
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DOI：
10.1176/appi.ajp.157.2.163
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发表时间：
2000-02-01
影响因子：
17.7
通讯作者：
Kupfer, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kraemer, HC;Yesavage, JA;Kupfer, D
目的：在精神病学研究中，横断面研究经常被用作关于发展或疾病过程的纵向推断的基础。虽然这种使用的局限性往往得到承认，但这些局限性往往被低估。作者描述了这样的推论是如何经常，有时甚至是严重的误导。方法：为什么以及如何这些推论误导在这里展示了一个直观的狂欢，通过使用模拟数据的灵感来自真实的问题，在精神病学研究。结果如下：在横向研究和纵向推理之间的关系中，有四个因素起着重要作用，它们是时间尺度的选择，研究的发展过程的类型，测量的可靠性和术语的清晰度。作者建议如何识别推理错误时，他们发生，描述如何防止这种错误在未来的研究，并描绘了只有纵向研究才能回答关键问题的情况。结论：简单的结论是，人们必须总是使用横截面研究的结果来得出关于纵向过程的推论。
Objective: Cross-sectional studies are often used in psychiatric research as a basis of longitudinal inferences about developmental or disease processes. While the limitations of such usage are often acknowledged, these are often understated. The authors describe how such inferences are often, and sometimes seriously, misleading. Method: Why and how these inferences mislead are here demonstrated on an intuitive revel, by using simulated data inspired by real problems in psychiatric research. Results: Four factors with major roles in the relationship between cross-sectional studies and longitudinal inferences are selection of time scale, type of developmental process studied, reliability of measurement, and clarity of terminology The authors suggest how to recognize inferential errors when they occur, describe how to protect against such errors in future research, and delineate the circumstances in which only longitudinal studies can answer crucial questions. Conclusions: The simple conclusion is that one must always use the results of cross-sectional studies to draw inferences about longitudinal processes with trepidation.