The Critical Role of Infectious Disease in Compensatory Population Growth in Response to Culling
The Critical Role of Infectious Disease in Compensatory Population Growth in Response to Culling
复制标题
传染病在应对扑杀的补偿性人口增长中的关键作用
作者：
E. Tanner;Andy White;P. Lurz;C. Gortázar;I. Díez;M. Boots
尽管疾病在自然界中无处不在，但疾病动态在收获后的补偿性生长反应中所起的作用被忽视了。我们使用一种数学方法来证明，收获可以带来补偿性增长，因为它可以缓解疾病导致的死亡。我们的发现表明，扑杀含有致命性寄生虫的系统可以降低疾病流行率，增加人口密度。我们的模型预测，这种补偿发生在广泛的传染病特征上，除非这种疾病在宿主中诱导长期免疫。我们的主要见解是，一个种群可以通过疾病以类似的密度进行调节，或者通过扑杀和疾病的组合来降低流行率。我们用一个代表野猪结核病感染的系统特定模型来说明我们的预测，该模型在西班牙中部被参数化，并发现对扑杀有显著的补偿。考虑到很少有野生动物疾病可能会诱导长期免疫，携带致命疾病的种群通常对收获具有弹性。
Despite the ubiquity of disease in nature, the role that disease dynamics play in the compensatory growth response to harvesting has been ignored. We use a mathematical approach to show that harvesting can lead to compensatory growth due to a release from disease-induced mortality. Our findings imply that culling in systems that harbor virulent parasites can reduce disease prevalence and increase population density. Our models predict that this compensation occurs for a broad range of infectious disease characteristics unless the disease induces long-lasting immunity in hosts. Our key insight is that a population can be regulated at a similar density by disease or at reduced prevalence by a combination of culling and disease. We illustrate our predictions with a system-specific model representing wild boar tuberculosis infection, parameterized for central Spain, and find significant compensation to culling. Given that few wildlife diseases are likely to induce long-lived immunity, populations with virulent diseases may often be resilient to harvesting.