STRESS AND SMOKING: ASSOCIATIONS WITH TERRORISM AND CAUSAL IMPACT
STRESS AND SMOKING: ASSOCIATIONS WITH TERRORISM AND CAUSAL IMPACT
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DOI：
10.1111/coep.12021
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Pesko, Michael F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pesko, Michael F.
本研究分析了俄克拉荷马州爆炸案和9/11恐怖袭击对压力、吸烟和戒烟尝试的影响，使用了来自行为风险因素监测系统的1，657，985个观察结果。不连续回归的结果表明，在2001年第四季度，压力增加了近半天每30天（11.9%）的成年人吸烟。在9/11事件后的两年内，吸烟率在曾经吸烟的成年人中增加了1.1个百分点（2.3%），导致950，000至1，300，000名成年前吸烟者因恐怖主义而再次成为吸烟者。到2003年底，政府的净费用在5.3亿美元到8.3亿美元之间。成年人报告说，社区军事参与和教育的基础上不成比例的压力增加。吸烟和压力之间的同时性是由一个工具变量模型，提供有效性的假设之间的因果关系的途径恐怖主义，压力和吸烟。这个模型表明，每30天多一天的压力会导致曾经吸烟的成年人吸烟率增加3.4%。结果有助于量化恐怖主义的隐藏成本，并提供了一个更好的理解在高压力时期的效用最大化。(JEL（第12、18段）
This study analyzes the effects of the Oklahoma City bombing and 9/11 terrorist attacks on stress, smoking, and smoking quit attempts using 1,657,985 observations from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Regression discontinuity results suggest that, in the fourth quarter of 2001, stress increased by nearly an extra half day per 30 days (11.9%) among ever smoking adults. In the 2 years after 9/11, smoking prevalence increased by 1.1 percentage points (2.3%) among ever smoking adults, resulting in between 950,000 and 1,300,000 adult former smokers becoming smokers again because of terrorism. The net cost to the government was between $530 million and $830 million through the end of 2003. Adults reported disproportionate stress increases based on community military participation and education. Simultaneity between smoking and stress is addressed by an instrumental variables model, providing validity to the hypothesized causal pathway between terrorism, stress, and smoking. This model suggests that an extra day of stress per 30 days causes a 3.4 percentage point increase in smoking among ever smoking adults. Results help to quantify a hidden cost of terrorism and provide a better understanding of utility maximization during periods of high stress. (JEL I12, I18)