Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought
Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought
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2016 年肯尼亚干旱的驱动因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Otto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Uhe;S. Philip;S. Kew;K. Shah;Joyce Kimutai;E. Mwangi;G. J. van Oldenborgh;Roop K. Singh;J. Arrighi;E. Jjemba;H. Cullen;F. Otto
2016 年至 2017 年，肯尼亚经历了干旱，由于 2016 年降雨量较少，超过 300 万人需要粮食援助。每当发生此类极端事件时，人们都会提出关于气候变化的作用以及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动等自然变率如何影响事件发生的可能性和强度的问题。在这里，我们的目标是通过应用三种独立的极端事件归因方法来量化不同气候驱动因素对这次干旱的相对贡献。通过分析肯尼亚东南部和西北部的降水数据，我们没有发现人类引起的气候变化的一致信号，因此得出结论，它并没有对 2016 年那样的低降雨量的可能性产生很大影响。然而，2016 年是拉尼娜年，我们表明，由于特定的海面温度，这一事件确实更有可能发生。由于气候变化，该地区的气温呈趋势，这可能加剧了干旱的影响。通过分析仅用一种气候模型模拟的降水量减去蒸发量和土壤湿度，与没有气候变化的模拟相比，我们没有看到当前气候下的模拟中的水分减少。然而，我们的模拟并未涵盖气温升高的预期影响，例如对水资源的需求增加和牲畜压力。尽管我们发现气候变化对降水没有显着影响，但我们不能排除干旱与温度相关的影响与人类引起的气候变化有关。
In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role of climate change and how natural variability such as the El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation influenced the likelihood and intensity of the event. Here we aim to quantify the relative contributions of different climate drivers to this drought by applying three independent methodologies of extreme event attribution. Analysing precipitation data for the South East and North West of Kenya we found no consistent signal from human‐induced climate change and thus conclude that it has not greatly affected the likelihood of low rainfall such as in 2016. However, 2016 was a La Niña year and we show that this event was indeed more likely because of the specific sea surface temperatures. There is a trend in temperatures in the region due to climate change that may have exacerbated the effects of this drought. By analysing precipitation minus evaporation and soil moisture, simulated by one climate model only, we did not see a reduction in moisture in simulations in the current climate compared with simulations without climate change. However, there are expected effects of higher temperatures that our simulations do not cover, such as increased demand on water resources and stress on livestock. Although we find no significant influence of climate change on precipitation, we cannot rule out that temperature‐related impacts of drought are linked to human‐induced climate change.
2014 年非洲之角干旱：气象驱动因素
影响因子：
8
作者：
Marthews T
通讯作者：
Marthews T