Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow‐fed and glacier‐fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: statistical downscaling of global climate model projections
Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow‐fed and glacier‐fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: statistical downscaling of global climate model projections
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9536
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发表时间：
2013-12
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
S. Kure;S. Jang;N. Ohara;M. L. Kavvas;Z. Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kure;S. Jang;N. Ohara;M. L. Kavvas;Z. Chen
全球变暖导致的气候变化是中亚地区的一个公众关切问题。由于特殊的地形和气候条件，塔吉克斯坦共和国被认为是中亚的主要冰川中心。在这项研究中，区域气候变化的影响，在塔吉克斯坦的两个大流域，Pyanj和Vaksh河流域位于阿姆河流域的上游部门进行了分析。利用地面观测数据、Willmott存档数据集和GSMaP卫星驱动数据集，开发了一种具有模型输出统计校正的统计回归方法，并将其应用于流域，以缩小0.1度网格的全球气候模式预测，并评估子流域尺度的区域气候变化影响。研究发现，由于未来气温有明显的上升趋势，积雪和冰川融化对目标流域未来的水资源和洪水状况至关重要。同时还发现，随着气温的逐渐升高，降雪量将减少，但降雨量将增加。这种变化可能会导致冬季和早春的山洪暴发增加，并在未来一年中造成水文状况的重大变化。此外，目标流域的洪水风险可能会略有增加，因为高日降水的频率和幅度增加，以及未来气温高的情况下快速融雪的增加。版权所有© 2012约翰威利父子有限公司.
Climate change due to global warming is a public concern in Central Asia. Because of specific orography and climate conditions, the republic of Tajikistan is considered as the main glacial center of Central Asia. In this study, regional climate change impacts in the two large basins of Tajikistan, Pyanj and Vaksh River basins located in the upstream sector of the Amu Darya River basin are analysed. A statistical regression method with model output statistics corrections using the ground observation data, Willmott archived dataset and GSMaP satellite driven dataset, was developed and applied to the basins to downscale the Global Climate Model Projections at a 0.1‐degree grid and to assess the regional climate change impacts at subbasin scale. It was found that snow and glacier melting are of fundamental importance for the state of the future water resources and flooding at the target basins since the air temperature had a clearly increasing trend toward the future. It was also found that the snowfall will decrease, but the rainfall will increase because of the gradual increase in the air temperature. Such changes may result in an increase in flash floods during the winter and the early spring, and in significant changes in the hydrological regime during a year in the future. Furthermore, the risks of floods in the target basins may be slightly increasing because of the increase in the frequencies and magnitudes of high daily precipitation and the increase in the rapid snowmelt with high air temperatures toward the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.