Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model
Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model
复制标题
初始化程序对海洋-大气耦合模型预测能力的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-013-1969-4
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
D. Stammer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iuliia Polkova;A. Köhl;D. Stammer
本文研究了年代际气候预报系统的预报技巧对初始化过程细节的敏感性。为此，UCLA/MITgcm海气耦合气候模式的初始化使用以下三种不同的初始化方法：全状态初始化（FSI），异常初始化（AI）和FSI采用热通量和淡水通量校正（FC）。海洋初始条件由德国对估计海洋状态估计的环流和气候的贡献（GECCO项目）提供，从1961年到2001年，每5年初始化一次十年后报的集合。利用GECCO合成的海表温度（SST）、海表高度（SSH）和大西洋纬向翻转环流（AMOC）的预报能力进行了评估。在具有深混合层的区域中，在FC实验中，SST异常的预测技能在长达十年的时间内仍然很重要。相比之下，FSI在北大西洋的持续技能较低，AI在南半球温带地区的技能不高，但在热带地区似乎更熟练。在热带外，改进的技能与FC初始化方法的能力，以更好地代表混合层的深度，最高的技能发生在冬季。空间平均的北大西洋SSH后报的相关技能仍然显着的十年，只有FC。北大西洋MOC初始化的后报显示，在第一候的相关性高的值，而相关性仍然显着，在随后的候太FSI和FC。总体而言，对于当前的设置，FC方法似乎导致最佳结果，其次是FSI和AI程序。
The sensitivity of the predictive skill of a decadal climate prediction system is investigated with respect to details of the initialization procedure. For this purpose, the coupled ocean–atmosphere UCLA/MITgcm climate model is initialized using the following three different initialization approaches: full state initialization (FSI), anomaly initialization (AI) and FSI employing heat flux and freshwater flux corrections (FC). The ocean initial conditions are provided by the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (GECCO project), from which ensembles of decadal hindcasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 2001. The predictive skill for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed against the GECCO synthesis. In regions with a deep mixed layer the predictive skill for SST anomalies remains significant for up to a decade in the FC experiment. By contrast, FSI shows less persistent skill in the North Atlantic and AI does not show high skill in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, but appears to be more skillful in the tropics. In the extratropics, the improved skill is related to the ability of the FC initialization method to better represent the mixed layer depth, and the highest skill occurs during wintertime. The correlation skill for the spatially averaged North Atlantic SSH hindcasts remains significant up to a decade only for FC. The North Atlantic MOC initialized hindcasts show high correlation values in the first pentad while correlation remains significant in the following pentad too for FSI and FC. Overall, for the current setup, the FC approach appears to lead to the best results, followed by the FSI and AI procedures.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Goddard, L.;Kumar, A.;Delworth, T.
通讯作者：
Delworth, T.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
D. Stammer;Neeraj Agarwal;Peter Herrmann;A. Köhl;C. Mechoso
通讯作者：
D. Stammer;Neeraj Agarwal;Peter Herrmann;A. Köhl;C. Mechoso