Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens
Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens
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DOI：
10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sterman, John D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cronin, Matthew A.;Gonzalez, Cleotilde;Sterman, John D.
积累是动态系统中的一个基本过程：库存积累了生产量减去运输量;国债积累了联邦赤字。在这种系统中进行有效的决策需要了解存量与改变存量的流量之间的关系。然而，受过高等教育的人往往无法推断简单的股票流系统的行为。在一系列的实验中，我们证明了对积累的理解不足，称为股票流失败，是一个基本的推理错误。持续的表现不佳不是由于无法解释图表，缺乏上下文知识，动机或认知能力。相反，存量流动失灵是一种强有力的现象，其根源似乎是未能理解积累的最基本原则，导致使用了不适当的经验。我们发现，许多人，包括受过高等教育的人，具有很强的技术培训，使用我们所说的“相关性启发式”，错误地假设股票的行为与其流动模式相匹配。我们讨论了股票流失败的起源和管理和教育的影响。(C)2008年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Accumulation is a fundamental process in dynamic systems: inventory accumulates production less shipments; the national debt accumulates the federal deficit. Effective decision making in such systems requires an understanding of the relationship between stocks and the flows that alter them. However, highly educated people are often unable to infer the behavior of simple stock-flow systems. In a series of experiments we demonstrate that poor understanding of accumulation, termed stock-flow failure, is a fundamental reasoning error. Persistent poor performance is not attributable to an inability to interpret graphs, lack of contextual knowledge, motivation, or cognitive capacity. Rather, stock-flow failure is a robust phenomenon that appears to be rooted in failure to appreciate the most basic principles of accumulation, leading to the use of inappropriate heuristics. We show that many people, including highly educated individuals with strong technical training, use what we term the "correlation heuristic", erroneously assuming that the behavior of a stock matches the pattern of its flows. We discuss the origins of stock-flow failure and implications for management and education. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.