The cost recoverability of transport infrastructure under the risk of natural disasters
The cost recoverability of transport infrastructure under the risk of natural disasters
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
R. Itoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Itoh
本研究考察了成本可回收性，或者当交通基础设施的容量因自然灾害而不确定时，最佳拥堵通行费的预期收入是否超过交通基础设施最佳投资的成本。政府通过结合两类基础设施来控制整个交通系统的可靠性程度；基础设施不稳定，灾害发生时其能力会下降；一个稳定的容量，无论发生什么灾难，其容量都是恒定的。在家庭风险厌恶偏好的假设下，Mohring 和 Harwitz（1962）提出的严格成本回收定理并不成立，尽管在任何事件发生的情况下，拥堵收费都是以完全灵活的方式控制的，并且优化设计的不稳定（稳定）基础设施是（不可）成本回收的，因为降低风险负效用的投资收益（称为风险溢价）并不包含在收入中。 拥堵收费。我们还表明，当（且仅当）运输成本由线性函数指定，并且正如许多实证研究所示，运输需求的价格弹性小于 1 时，整个运输基础设施的成本不可收回。
This study examines cost recoverability, or whether expected revenue of the optimal congestion toll exceeds the cost of the optimal investment in transportation infrastructure, when its capacity is uncertain because of natural disasters. The government control degree of reliability of entire transportation system by combining two types of infrastructure; unstable infrastructure whose capacity decreases when a disaster occurs; and a stable one whose capacity is constant regardless of the disaster. Under the assumption of risk-averse preferences of households, the theorem of strict cost-recovery presented by Mohring and Harwitz (1962) does not holds despite the congestion toll is controlled in a completely flexible manner given any incidents, and the optimally designed unstable (stable) infrastructure is (not) cost recoverable because benefit of investment mitigating disutility of risk, called risk premium, is not covered by the revenue of congestion toll. We also show entire transportation infrastructure is not cost recoverable if (and only if) transport cost is specified by a linear function, and if price elasticity of transport demand is less than one as many empirical studies has shown.