Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments
Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053338
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发表时间：
2012-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shuting Yang;J. Christensen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shuting Yang;J. Christensen
欧洲冬季气候及其可能的关系，北极海冰减少在最近的过去和未来的气候模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的模式模拟进行了研究，重点是寒冷的冬天。虽然欧洲在未来将整体变暖，但我们发现，寒冷月份的事件将继续发生，欧洲出现寒冷冬季的可能性仍然很大，这与巴伦支海和喀拉海部分的海冰减少有关。未来冷事件的典型模式是冷欧洲暖北极异常，这与北极涛动的负相位有关。然而，这些模式与历史时期的相应模式不同，并强调了欧洲寒冷冬季事件与北极海冰减少之间的联系。
European winter climate and its possible relationship with the Arctic sea ice reduction in the recent past and future as simulated by the models of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) is investigated, with focus on the cold winters. While Europe will warm overall in the future, we find that episodes of cold months will continue to occur and there remains substantial probability for the occurrence of cold winters in Europe linked with sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Sea sector. A pattern of cold‐European warm‐Arctic anomaly is typical for the cold events in the future, which is associated with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. These patterns, however, differ from the corresponding patterns in the historical period, and underline the connection between European cold winter events and Arctic sea ice reduction.