Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal.
Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep44348
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发表时间：
2017-03-09
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Serrão EA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Assis J;Berecibar E;Claro B;Alberto F;Reed D;Raimondi P;Serrão EA
全球气候变化可能会限制许多分类群和栖息地的低纬度范围边缘。东北大西洋海洋大型藻类森林就是这种情况，这是一个重要的生态系统，其主要结构物种是一年生海带Saccorhiza polyschides。我们耦合生态位建模与模拟潜在的扩散和延迟的发展阶段来推断的主要力量塑造范围的边缘，并预测其动态。模型表明，南部的限制是由冬季高温以上的越冬微观阶段的生理耐受性和减少上升流在招聘。最好的范围预测实现了假设低空间扩散（5公里）和延迟阶段长达两年（时间扩散）。通过时间重建分布表明，从1986年到2014年，损失约为30%，限制了S。在南部边缘的上升流区域。未来的预测进一步限制人口在一个独特的避难所西北部伊比利亚。损失取决于排放情景，到2100年，最剧烈的一次排放情景将改变目前分布的38%。这种分布变化可能无法通过空间或时间上的扩散来挽救（如最近的过去所示），预计将导致生物多样性的重大损失和生态系统功能的变化。
Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of ~30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting ~38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning.