Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?
Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13635
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Poloczanska, Elvira S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fogarty, Hannah E.;Burrows, Michael T.;Poloczanska, Elvira S.
物种范围的变化是一种全球现象，众所周知，这是对气候变化的反应。到达一个地区的新物种可能成为有害物种，改变生态系统结构，或对渔业和娱乐构成挑战或机遇。因此，早期发现范围变化并迅速实施任何适当的管理策略至关重要。这项研究调查了在正常范围之外的海洋物种的“首次目击”是否可以为即将到来的气候驱动的范围变化提供早期预警。我们研究了由当地气候速度模式（以50年时间尺度计算）定义的首次观测与海洋区域之间的关系，同时也考虑了观测努力的分布（即全球数据库中生物观测记录的采样日数）。海洋轨迹区包括气候“源”区（与较暖地区缺乏联系的地区）、“走廊”区（移动等温线汇聚的地区）和“汇”区（等温线局部消失的地区）。此外，我们还调查了首次目击记录的纬度带，以及物种的热隶属关系。我们发现，首次观测更有可能发生在气候汇和“发散”区域（许多快速和发散的气候轨迹经过的区域），这表明温度在驱动海洋物种分布变化中的作用。我们第一次看到的大多数鱼似乎是向高纬度移动的热带和亚热带物种，正如气候变暖所预料的那样。我们的研究结果表明，首次观测可能与较长期的气候过程有关，因此有可能用于指示气候驱动的范围变化。在早期阶段发现即将发生的范围转移的方法的发展将使资源管理者和研究人员能够在范围转移物种可能定居之前更好地管理它们所带来的机会。
Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i. e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize.