Risk and Resilience Assessment With Component Criticality Ranking of Electric Power Systems Subject to Earthquakes
Risk and Resilience Assessment With Component Criticality Ranking of Electric Power Systems Subject to Earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1109/jsyst.2019.2961356
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Mancarella, Pierluigi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Espinoza, Sebastian;Poulos, Alan;Mancarella, Pierluigi
世界各国遭受地震和其他自然灾害的巨大影响，体现在人员伤亡、基础设施损坏、服务中断和恢复成本上。虽然近年来电力系统的灾害暴露意识有所提高，但缓解和适应措施，如备用调度和基础设施投资，通常在没有定量工具的情况下进行，以说明这些事件的潜在随机性。本文首先讨论了为什么一个综合评估，其中包括来源的不确定性（风险）和管理的时间依赖性的恢复过程（弹性），应用于评估地震事件对电力系统的影响。此后，概率的方法，认为系统的危险性，脆弱性，操作和恢复。作为一个案例研究，概率地震恢复力的北方智利电力系统进行评估，使用不同的风险措施，包括预期的年损失，风险价值，和条件的风险价值。最后，一种新的关键性评估的基础上，这些指标的发展表明，对于某些网络，如研究案例，改造的选择性组件可以显着提高整个系统的地震事件的恢复力。例如，如果假设研究系统的152个组件中的一个特定组件是不可攻击的，则预期的年度中断成本降低8%。
Countries around the world suffer the dramatic impact of earthquakes and other natural hazards reflected in casualties, infrastructure damage, service interruptions, and recovery costs. Although disaster exposure consciousness of electric power systems has increased in recent years, mitigation and adaptation actions, such as reserve scheduling and infrastructure investments, are usually performed without quantitative tools to account for the underlying stochasticity of these events. This article first discusses why an integrated assessment, which incorporates sources of uncertainty (risk) and manages the time-dependency of the recovery process (resilience), should be used to assess the impact of seismic events on electric power systems. Thereafter, a probabilistic methodology that considers the hazard, vulnerability, operation, and recovery of the system is presented. As a case study, the probabilistic seismic resilience of the electric power system of Northern Chile is assessed using different risk measures, including expected annual loss, value at risk, and conditional value-at-risk. Finally, a novel criticality assessment based on these metrics is developed to demonstrate that, for certain networks such as the study case, retrofit of selective components can notably improve the resilience of the complete system to seismic events. For example, if one specific component from the 152 components of the study system is assumed invulnerable, expected annual interruption costs decrease by 8%.