Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference
Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference
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DOI：
10.3389/fnsys.2016.00049
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发表时间：
2016-06-07
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Campbell, John O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Campbell, John O.
许多描述自然选择的数学框架相当于贝叶斯定理，也被称为贝叶斯更新。根据定义，贝叶斯推理过程是一个涉及贝叶斯更新的过程，因此我们可以得出结论，这些框架将自然选择描述为贝叶斯推理过程。因此，自然选择作为一个反例，对一个广泛持有的解释，限制贝叶斯推理人类的心理过程（包括统计学家的努力）。由于贝叶斯推理总是可以用（变分）自由能最小化来表达，自然选择可以被看作是由两个组成部分组成的：外部世界环境中“实验”的生成模型，以及“实验”的结果或“实验”的预测和实际结果所带来的“惊喜”。自由能的最小化意味着“惊喜”体验的隐式度量以贝叶斯方式更新生成模型。这种描述与道金斯在复制因子和载体方面提出的广义达尔文过程机制，以及坎贝尔在推理系统方面提出的广义达尔文过程机制密切一致。贝叶斯推理是一种基于证据的知识积累算法。这种算法现在被认为在广泛的进化过程中起作用，包括自然选择、心智模式的进化和文化进化过程，特别是包括科学本身。因此，自由能最小化的变分原理可以作为普遍达尔文主义的统一数学框架，研究整个自然界的进化过程。
Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.