A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil
A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0033775
复制
发表时间：
2012-03-23
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rocha, Eduardo Melani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ibrahim, Marlon Moraes;de Angelis, Rafael;Rocha, Eduardo Melani
目的：真菌是角膜炎的主要原因，尽管很少有药物被许可用于治疗角膜炎。本研究的目的是观察抗真菌滴眼液商业化的变化，并预测巴西真菌性角膜炎的季节性分布。方法：收集巴西唯一一家眼科实验室（Opthalmos）抗真菌滴眼液销售的回顾性研究数据。这些数据与巴西2002年7月至2008年6月间真菌性角膜炎的地理和季节分布相关。结果：共销售抗真菌滴眼液26,087支，平均2.3支/例。各年度抗真菌药销量差异有统计学意义（p < 0.01）。线性回归模型显示，相对湿度降低与抗真菌药物销售之间存在显著相关性（R-2 = 0.17, p < 0.01）。结论：抗真菌眼药水销售情况提示真菌性角膜炎存在季节性分布。一种可能的解释是，每年的第三季度（气候干燥的时期），巴西的农业活动更加密集，这表明真菌性角膜炎的发病率较高。类似的模型可以应用于其他疾病，用独特的或很少的、可监测的药物进行管理，以预测流行病学方面的情况。
Purpose: Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil.Methods: Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008.Results: A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p < 0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R-2 = 0.17, p < 0.01).Conclusions: Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects.