A flow band model of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica: Response to CO2‐induced climatic warming
A flow band model of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica: Response to CO2‐induced climatic warming
复制标题
南极洲罗斯冰架的流带模型：对二氧化碳引起的气候变暖的响应
DOI：
10.1029/91jb00197
复制
发表时间：
1991
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Lingle;D. Schilling;J. Fastook;W. Paterson;T. Brown
本文应用一个时间相关的模式对西南极洲罗斯冰架冰流B排放带进行了模拟。该模型包括温度的影响，深度依赖的密度，并从罗斯海湾和克拉里冰隆海岸的背压。罗斯冰架地球物理和冰川学调查和西普尔海岸项目的数据被用作输入数据。通过再现10，000个模型年的流动带，并利用累积、表面温度和基底平衡的平衡分布，验证了准确性和稳定性。敏感性测试迫使模型增加积累率，表面温度，和基础熔化率，分别，而其他因素保持不变。冰架的响应，可能会导致从增加二氧化碳和微量温室气体的三种气候情景进行了模拟。结果范围从轻微增厚适度增加背压在接地区快速变薄伴随着快速降低背压在175年至600年的模拟，主要取决于是否增加表面温度和积累率是伴随着增加的基底熔化率。中央冰架，约400公里的冰川上游从崩解前，薄了22%，在600年时，基底融化线性增加更多»到最大0.5米/年后，150年，然后保持稳定。当冰架底部融化量线性增加到150年后的2.0 m/a时，同一位置的冰架在175年内减薄了40%，然后保持稳定。目前计算的底部熔化的平衡速率，平均超过流带的底部表面是0.17米/年。«少
A time-dependent model is applied to the Ross Ice Shelf flow band discharging ice stream B, West Antarctica. The model includes the effects of temperature, depth-dependent density, and backpressure from the coasts of the Ross embayment and Crary Ice Rise. Data from the Ross Ice Shelf Geophysical and Glaciological Survey and the Siple Coast Project are used as input data. Accuracy and stability are verified by reproducing the flow band for 10,000 model years with equilibrium distributions of accumulation, surface temperature, and basal balance. Sensitivity is tested by forcing the model with increasing accumulation rates, surface temperatures, and basal melt rates, respectively, while other factors are held constant. The response of the ice shelf to three climatic scenarios that may result from increasing carbon dioxide and trace greenhouse gases is simulated. The results range from slight thickening with moderately increased backpressure in the grounding zone to rapid thinning accompanied by rapidly decreasing backpressure during 175- to 600-year simulations, depending primarily upon whether increasing surface temperatures and accumulaton rates are accompanied by increased rates of basal melting. The central ice shelf, about 400 km upglacier from the calving front, thins by 22% in 600 years when basal melting is increased linearlymore » to a maximum of 0.5 m/yr after 150 years, then held steady. The ice shelf thins by 40% in 175 years at the same location when basal melting is increasedlinearly to 2.0 m/yr after 150 years, then held steady. The present calculated equilibrium rate of basal melting, averaged over the bottom surface of the flow band is 0.17 m/yr.« less