Projecting the probability of survival free from cancer and cardiovascular incidence through lifestyle modification in Japan
Projecting the probability of survival free from cancer and cardiovascular incidence through lifestyle modification in Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ypmed.2008.11.006
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发表时间：
2009-02-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Tsugane, Shoichiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tanaka, Sachiko;Yamamoto, Seiichiro;Tsugane, Shoichiro
目标.为了促进旨在降低癌症或心血管疾病（CVD）发病率的预防策略，我们提出了一种方法来预测具有给定生活方式风险因素的受试者将免于癌症或CVD而存活的概率。预测模型是根据在日本进行的一项队列研究的数据开发的。在1990-2003年期间，对96,592名受试者进行了随访，确定了5797例癌症和2591例心血管疾病病例以及2395例死亡。以吸烟、饮酒和体重指数（BMI）作为预测模型中的共同危险因素。根据个体化概率预测，避免吸烟、过量饮酒和高BMI分别使50- 54岁男性和女性的10年无病生存概率从81.4%增加到92.9%和从88.0%增加到94.3%。在人群平均风险方面，戒烟和避免过量饮酒产生了很大的影响，而降低BMI的影响很小，因为风险人群很小。目前吸烟、过量饮酒和肥胖被认为是癌症和心血管疾病的常见危险因素。考虑到风险因素在日本人群中的分布，预防/戒烟和减少过量饮酒将防止大量事件病例。(C)2008年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Objectives. To promote prevention strategies aimed at reducing the incidence of cancer or cardiovascular disease (CVD), we present a method to project the probability that a subject with given lifestyle risk factors will survive free from either of cancer or CVD.Methods. Projection models were developed from data from a cohort study conducted in Japan. During 1990-2003, 96,592 subjects were followed and 5797 cancer and 2591 CVD cases and 2395 deaths were identified. Smoking, alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) were used as common risk factors in projection models.Results. According to the projection of individualized probability, avoidance of smoking, excess alcohol intake and high BMI increased 10-year disease-free survival probability from 81.4% to 92.9% and from 88.0% to 94.3% in 50- to 54-year-old men and women, respectively. In terms of population average risk, smoking cessation and avoidance of excess alcohol exerted a large impact, while decreasing BMI had a small impact due to the small at-risk population.Conclusions. Current smoking, excess alcohol intake and obesity were suggested as common risk factors for cancer and CVD. Considering the distribution of risk factors in the Japanese population, smoking prevention/cessation and reduction of excess alcohol intake would prevent a large number of incident cases. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.