The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis
The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5
复制
发表时间：
2009-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Yan, Jianping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dasgupta, Susmita;Laplante, Benoit;Yan, Jianping
气候变化导致的海平面上升（SLR）是一个严重的全球威胁：科学证据现在是压倒性的。温室气体排放量的持续增长和相关的全球变暖很可能促使本世纪的SLR达到1 m，而格陵兰岛和南极西部冰盖的意外快速破裂可能会产生3-5 m的SLR。在本文中，我们评估了84个沿海发展中国家继续SLR的后果。已使用地理信息系统软件将现有的按空间分列的关于关键影响要素（土地、人口、农业、城市范围、湿地和国内生产总值）的最佳全球数据与预计1-5米SLR的淹没区相叠加。我们的研究结果表明，在本世纪内，发展中国家可能有数千万人因SLR而流离失所;随之而来的经济和生态破坏对许多人来说将是严重的。在国家一级，结果极不平衡，严重影响仅限于相对少数的国家。
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3-5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1-5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.