A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle
A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle
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地球上每五个人就有一部新智能手机：量化新技术周期
DOI：
10.5089/9781484339695.001
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yiqun Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Benjamin Carton;Joannes Mongardini;Yiqun Li
近年来，全球对智能手机的巨大需求催生了一个新的全球科技周期。仅在2016年，全球智能手机销量就达到了近15亿部，相当于地球上五分之一的人。反过来，这又在亚洲各地催生了复杂和不断变化的供应链。我们表明，新的技术周期不能通过标准的季节性来捕捉，而是取决于智能手机产品的发布日期。对周期和趋势进行分解，我们还表明智能手机的销售可能在2015年末达到顶峰。然而，亚洲作为全球科技制造商的重要性继续增强。
The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.