Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures
Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/met.58
复制
发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Pappenberger, Florian
许多不同的性能措施已经发展到评估现场气象预测。然而，研究人员或从业人员遇到新的或不熟悉的措施可能难以解释其结果，这可能导致他们避免新的措施，并依赖于那些熟悉的。在评估水文应用的极端事件预测的背景下，本文旨在促进使用一系列的性能指标。介绍了一些类型的业绩衡量标准，以展示处理新措施的六步方法。使用的例子，欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）集合降水预测的多瑙河洪水的2002年7月和8月，以显示如何使用新的性能措施，这种方法和方式来选择不同的性能措施的基础上，他们的适合性手头的任务。版权所有（c）2008皇家气象学会。
Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.