An assessment of recent global atmospheric reanalyses for Antarctic near surface air temperature
An assessment of recent global atmospheric reanalyses for Antarctic near surface air temperature
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最近全球大气再分析对南极近地表气温的评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.029
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发表时间：
2019-09-15
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Dong, Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huai, Baojuan;Wang, Yetang;Dong, Xu
本文利用32个人工站和10个自动站的月平均气温资料，对ECMWF中期再分析气候预报系统再分析（CFSR）的性能进行了评价日本气象厅55年再分析（JRA-55）、现代研究和应用回顾分析2（MERRA-2）、20世纪世纪再分析数据集（20 CR、ERA-20 C、CERA-20 C和ERA-20 CM）。南极气温数据集的表现在不同的时间尺度上和冰川制度不同。一般来说，这些数据集在冬季有较高的平均绝对误差（MAE），在夏季有较低的MAE。总体而言，MERRA-2在每月气温值方面表现最好，任何月份的MAE <2摄氏度。ERA-Interim最能代表1979 - 2010年期间月气温的年际变化。在20世纪的数据集中，1979年之前的温度变化比1979年之后的变化更不确定。此外，在20世纪世纪的数据集中出现了大量的不均匀性，因此，发现它们的温度趋势在很大程度上是虚假的。
The quality-controlled monthly air temperature records from 32 manned stations and 10 automatic weather stations are used to assess the performance of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the ECMWF "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2), and four twentieth century reanalysis data sets (20CR, ERA-20C, CERA-20C and ERA-20CM). The performance of the datasets for Antarctic air temperature differs on different time scales and with glaciological regime. In general, these datasets have higher mean absolute error (MAE) in the winter months and lower MAE in the summer months. Overall, MERRA-2 presents highest performance for monthly air temperature values, with MAE < 2 degrees C at any month. ERA-Interim best represents the inter-annual variability in monthly air temperature for the 1979-2010 period. In the 20th century datasets, changes in temperature prior to 1979 are more uncertain than variability after 1979. Furthermore, substantial inhomogeneities occur in the 20th century datasets, and as a result, their temperature trends are found to be largely spurious.