The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria
The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.001
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Sauerborn, Rainer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beguin, Andreas;Hales, Simon;Sauerborn, Rainer
目前疟疾的全球地理分布是气候和非气候因素之间复杂相互作用的结果。在过去的世纪里，社会经济发展和公共卫生措施使疟疾的分布明显减少。之前对全球变化对疟疾潜在影响的评估尚未量化非气候因素的影响。在本文中，我们描述了一个经验模型的过去，现在和未来潜在的疟疾的地理分布，其中包括气候变化和社会经济发展的影响。使用温度、降水量和人均国内生产总值（GDPpc）的逻辑回归模型以高准确度（灵敏度85%，特异性95%）确定了疟疾的近期全球地理分布。根据经验，气候因素对目前人均国内生产总值低于20 000美元的国家的疟疾传播有重大影响。使用与IPCC A1B情景一致的未来气候，GDPpc和人口预测，我们估计了2030年和2050年生活在疟疾可能传播地区的潜在未来人口。2050年，如果只考虑气候影响，预计面临风险的人口约为52亿，如果考虑国内生产总值和气候的综合影响，则为19.5亿。如果只考虑GDP的影响，则为17.4亿。在A1B情景下，我们预测气候变化对疟疾的影响要比GDPpc增加的影响小得多。然而，这一结果取决于对社会经济持续发展的乐观估计。即便如此，气候变化对疟疾的预计分布也有重要影响，导致预计面临风险的人口增加2亿多人。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socioeconomic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85% and specificity 95%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate. and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.