Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence
Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence
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DOI：
10.1016/j.joep.2016.11.001
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Tasoff, Joshua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levy, Matthew R.;Tasoff, Joshua
越来越多的证据表明，人们低估了复利的规模。然而，如果人们意识到自己无法进行这样的计算，他们应该要求提供服务，以改善此类缺陷的后果。在一项实验室实验中，我们发现人们表现出明显的指数增长偏见，但更重要的是，他们对自己回答涉及指数增长的问题的能力过于自信。他们还表现出对自己使用电子表格回答这些问题的能力过于自信。这一证据解释了为什么针对指数增长偏差的市场解决方案尚未出台。有偏见的个人对可能改善其财务决策的工具和服务的需求处于次优水平。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
There is increasing evidence that people underestimate the magnitude of compounding interest. However, if people were aware of their inability to make such calculations they should demand services to ameliorate the consequences of such deficiencies. In a laboratory experiment, we find that people exhibit substantial exponential-growth bias but, more importantly, that they are overconfident in their ability to answer questions that involve exponential growth. They also exhibit overconfidence in their ability to use a spreadsheet to answer these questions. This evidence explains why a market solution to exponential growth bias has not been forthcoming. Biased individuals have suboptimally low demand for tools and services that could improve their financial decisions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.