Climate warming causes changes in wheat phenological development that benefit yield in the Sichuan Basin of China
Climate warming causes changes in wheat phenological development that benefit yield in the Sichuan Basin of China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.eja.2022.126574
复制
发表时间：
2022-07-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Liu, Miao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Ming;Tang, Yonglu;Liu, Miao
在不同的变暖情景下，气候变暖对小麦产量的影响因地理位置而异。这种变化反映了真正的气候差异以及我们对生理过程如何响应变暖条件的认识不足。本研究在中国四川盆地进行了为期16年的3个作物生产系统（CPS）试验和7个品种的5年试验，旨在研究气候变暖对小麦物候发育、粮食产量（GY）、干物质（DM）积累和易位的影响。三种 CPS 分别为稻麦常规旋耕除茬（CPS1）、小麦零耕覆膜稻麦常规旋耕（CPS2）、麦稻零耕覆膜（CPS3）。本研究采用的小麦品种均为春型小麦，试验于每年10月26日至30日进行，仅在播种期和追肥期进行灌溉，浇水量小于20毫米。结果表明，11月至3月（MTNov-Mar）和11月至4月（MTNov-Apr）日平均气温均显着升高0.0964 ?年（-1）和 0.0947？ 2004 年至 2020 年分别为 yr(-1)。这种变暖导致开花提前，并使从花期到成熟的平均温度 (P(ost)AT(mean)) 显着降低 0.091 ?年(-1)。然而，颗粒数 m(-2) 并未受到这种变暖的影响。较冷且较长的籽粒浸提期 (GFP) 会导致籽粒库增大，并允许更多花前同化物被输送至籽粒，从而导致所有 CPS 和所有品种下的单粒重量和收获指数增加。 CPS 之间或品种之间 GY 和 DM 相关性状对温度变化的敏感性没有显着差异。平均所有 CPS，GY 每 1 ？ 增加 741.9 kg ha(-1)。 11 月至 4 月 MT 增加。产量增加的主要原因是在保持粒数m(-2)的情况下粒重增加。此外，预计四川盆地MTNov-4月值将达到14.7℃。和 16.5 ？到本世纪末分别在SSP245和SSP585气候变化情景下。当CO2浓度固定在350 ppm时，农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM）模型显示，MTNov-Apr值的增加显着增加了SSP245情景下的GY，但在SSP585情景下GY先是正向影响，然后是负向影响。这些结果为制定适应策略以应对未来四川盆地等气候变化并确保小麦供应奠定了基础。
The effects of climate warming on wheat yields vary geographically under different warming scenarios. Such variations reflect real climatic differences and our insufficient understanding of how physiological processes respond to warming conditions. In this study, a 16-year trial comprising three crop production systems (CPSs) and a 5-year trial including seven cultivars were conducted in the Sichuan Basin of China to investigate the effects of climate warming on the phenological development, grain yield (GY), dry matter (DM) accumulation and translocation of wheat. The three CPSs included conventional rotary tillage with residue removal for both rice and wheat (CPS1), conventional rotary tillage with the wheat residue incorporated for the rice following zero tillage with residue-mulching for wheat (CPS2), and zero tillage and residue-mulching employed for both wheat and rice (CPS3). The wheat cultivars used in this study were all spring-type wheat, and the trials were planted from 26 to 30 October each year, irrigation was applied only at the seeding and topdressing stages and in amounts less than 20 mm. The results showed that mean of daily mean temperature from November to March (MTNov-Mar) and November to April (MTNov-Apr) significantly increased by 0.0964 ? yr(-1) and 0.0947? yr(-1) from 2004 to 2020, respectively. This warming caused earlier flowering and significantly decreased mean temperature from anthesis to maturity (P(ost)AT(mean)) by 0.091 ? yr(-1). However, grain number m(-2) was unaffected by this warming. Cooler and longer grain-gilling periods (GFP) lead to larger grain sinks and allow more preanthesis assimilates to be transported to the grain, resulting in increased individual grain weight and harvest index under all CPSs and all cultivars. There were no significant differences in sensitivities of GY and DM related trait responses to temperature change between CPSs or between cultivars. Averaged over all CPSs, GY increased 741.9 kg ha(-1) with each 1 ? increases in MTNov-Apr. The increase in yield was mainly attributable to increase in grain weights while grain number m(-2) was maintained. In addition, the MTNov-Apr values in the Sichuan Basin were predicted to reach 14.7 ? and 16.5 ? by the end of this century under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate change scenarios, respectively. When the CO2 concentration was fixed at 350 ppm, the Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) model showed that the increasing MTNov-Apr values significantly increased the GY under the SSP245 scenario, but the GY was initially positively and then negatively affected under the SSP585 scenario. These results lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to address future climate change in climates like that of Sichuan Basin and ensure wheat supplies.