Ecohydrological modeling in agroecosystems: Examples and challenges
Ecohydrological modeling in agroecosystems: Examples and challenges
复制标题
农业生态系统中的生态水文建模：实例与挑战
DOI：
10.1002/2015wr017289
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
G. Vico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Porporato;Xue Feng;S. Manzoni;Y. Mau;A. Parolari;G. Vico
人类社会越来越多地改变水和生物地球化学循环，以提高生态系统生产力并减少与不可预测的气候驱动因素变化相关的风险。然而，这些变化往往会造成巨大的负面环境后果，引发社会如何确保未来可持续利用自然资源的问题。在这里，我们讨论生态水文学模型如何解决这些广泛的问题，特别关注农业生态系统。与社会与环境之间双向相互作用建模相关的挑战通过动态模型来说明，其中土壤和水质支持人类社会的发展，但也会因过度压力而退化，导致关键转变和持续的社会增长崩溃循环。然后，我们重点关注土壤水和溶质（养分或污染物）的耦合动力学，强调土壤和植物系统中的强非线性以及不可预测的水文气候强迫所带来的建模挑战，需要克服这些挑战才能定量分析自然和农业生态系统中的土壤水可持续性问题。我们讨论了该框架在灌溉、土壤盐碱化和施肥问题上的应用，并强调如何通过随机控制方法，通过对生态水文和生物地球化学相互作用的物理和数学合理描述，为不确定的农业生态系统中的土壤和水资源的大规模、长期规划提供最佳解决方案。
Human societies are increasingly altering the water and biogeochemical cycles to both improve ecosystem productivity and reduce risks associated with the unpredictable variability of climatic drivers. These alterations, however, often cause large negative environmental consequences, raising the question as to how societies can ensure a sustainable use of natural resources for the future. Here we discuss how ecohydrological modeling may address these broad questions with special attention to agroecosystems. The challenges related to modeling the two‐way interaction between society and environment are illustrated by means of a dynamical model in which soil and water quality supports the growth of human society but is also degraded by excessive pressure, leading to critical transitions and sustained societal growth‐collapse cycles. We then focus on the coupled dynamics of soil water and solutes (nutrients or contaminants), emphasizing the modeling challenges, presented by the strong nonlinearities in the soil and plant system and the unpredictable hydroclimatic forcing, that need to be overcome to quantitatively analyze problems of soil water sustainability in both natural and agricultural ecosystems. We discuss applications of this framework to problems of irrigation, soil salinization, and fertilization and emphasize how optimal solutions for large‐scale, long‐term planning of soil and water resources in agroecosystems under uncertainty could be provided by methods from stochastic control, informed by physically and mathematically sound descriptions of ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions.