Seasonal Forecasts of Major Hurricanes and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model
Seasonal Forecasts of Major Hurricanes and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0233.1
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Lin, Shian-Jiann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Murakami, Hiroyuki;Vecchi, Gabriel A.;Lin, Shian-Jiann
熟练的热带气旋(TC；风速和Gt；=17.5m S(-1))活动的季节性预报是具有挑战性的，当焦点集中在主要飓风(风速和Gt；=49.4m S(-1))、最强烈的飓风(4和5级；风速和Gt；=58.1m S(-1))和正在登陆的热带气旋时，更是具有挑战性。这项研究表明，与其50公里分辨率的前身气候模型(FLOR)相比，地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)开发的25公里分辨率的全球气候模式[面向高分辨率预报的低海洋分辨率(FLOR)模式]提高了预测北大西洋主要飓风和4类和5类飓风的频率以及提前几个月在美国和加勒比岛屿登陆TCS的技能。HiFLOR在预测西北太平洋西部和东北太平洋东部的4级和5级飓风方面也显示出显著的技能，而这两个模式在预测盆地总TC频率和登陆盆地TC频率方面显示出类似的技能。HiFLOR对北大西洋盆地总气旋、主要飓风和4级和5级飓风活动的改进的熟练预报主要是通过改进对气旋及其对气候的响应的水平分辨率的表示，而不是通过改进大尺度参数。
Skillful seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC; wind speed >= 17.5 m s(-1)) activity is challenging, even more so when the focus is on major hurricanes (wind speed >= 49.4 m s(-1)), the most intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5; wind speed >= 58.1 m s(-1)), and landfalling TCs. This study shows that a 25-km-resolution global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has improved skill in predicting the frequencies of major hurricanes and category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic as well as landfalling TCs over the United States and Caribbean islands a few months in advance, relative to its 50-km-resolution predecessor climate model (FLOR). HiFLOR also shows significant skill in predicting category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the western North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, while both models show comparable skills in predicting basin-total and landfalling TC frequency in the basins. The improved skillful forecasts of basin-total TCs, major hurricanes, and category 4 and 5 hurricane activity in the North Atlantic by HiFLOR are obtained mainly by improved representation of the TCs and their response to climate from the increased horizontal resolution rather than by improvements in large-scale parameters.