China’s soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?
China’s soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.020
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发表时间：
2011-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Yunshi Wang;J. Teter;D. Sperling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yunshi Wang;J. Teter;D. Sperling
在可预见的未来，中国的汽车保有量将以每年6-11%的速度增长。除非有积极的政策干预或中国经济崩溃，我们认为这些预测是保守的。我们分析了七个最大的汽车生产国在其机动化历史上可比时期的历史车辆增长模式。我们估计这组类似国家的汽车增长率为每年13-17%，大约是其他人预测的中国增长率的两倍。将这些更高的增长率应用于中国，将导致中国的汽车总量远远高于其他国家的预测，这意味着全球石油使用量和碳排放量远远高于国际能源署和其他机构的预测。
China’s vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6–11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13–17% per year—roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others.