Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
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DOI：
10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Perc, Matjaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Helbing, Dirk;Brockmann, Dirk;Perc, Matjaz
我们讨论了群体灾难、犯罪、恐怖主义、战争和疾病传播的模型和数据，以表明常规的方法，如威慑战略，往往不足以有效地遏制它们。许多常见的方法不能很好地描述实际系统的行为，因为它们忽略了反馈回路、不稳定性和级联效应。复杂性科学可以更好地理解社会系统的复杂且往往违反直觉的行为及其宏观层面的集体动态。我们强调，一个合适的系统设计和管理可以帮助阻止不良的级联效应，并使系统中的自组织的有利的。通过这种方式，复杂性科学可以帮助拯救人类生命。
We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.