Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures
Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures
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DOI：
10.1007/s10654-020-00631-6
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发表时间：
2020-04-18
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Riboli, Elio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sebastiani, Giovanni;Massa, Marco;Riboli, Elio
我们报道意大利新冠肺炎疫情与意大利政府在2月24日至3月12日期间实施的非常措施有关。我们利用3月1日至31日的数据分析了新冠肺炎的累积发病率(CI)。我们估计，在意大利受灾最严重的伦巴第区，在措施实施约7-10天后，在没有政府措施的情况下，观察到的新冠肺炎CI偏离了低于预期的值。新冠肺炎CI增长率在3月22日在伦巴第见顶，其他地区在3月24日至27日之间达到峰值。意大利107个省份中有87个省份的CI增长率在措施实施后平均13.6天达到顶峰。我们预计，到2020年5月中旬，伦巴第的CI增长率应该会大幅放缓。其他地区也应该遵循类似的模式。我们的预测假设，在此期间，政府的措施将保持不变。意大利不同地区的疫情演变表明，针对疫情的阶段越早采取措施，在这波疫情期间达到的总累积发病率就越低。我们的分析表明，政府的措施减缓并最终降低了新冠肺炎CI的增长，那里的疫情在3月中旬已经达到了很高的水平(伦巴第、埃米利亚-罗马尼亚和威尼托)，并防止了疫情在3月中旬疫情处于较早阶段的意大利中部和南部地区的上升，达到了北部地区已经达到的高水平。由于多国政府表示他们的目标是将疫情曲线向下推，意大利疫情的演变支持了世卫组织的建议，即在疫情曲线中应尽早推出严格的遏制措施。
We report on the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy in relation to the extraordinary measures implemented by the Italian Government between the 24th of February and the 12th of March. We analysed the Covid-19 cumulative incidence (CI) using data from the 1st to the 31st of March. We estimated that in Lombardy, the worst hit region in Italy, the observed Covid-19 CI diverged towards values lower than the ones expected in the absence of government measures approximately 7-10 days after the measures implementation. The Covid-19 CI growth rate peaked in Lombardy the 22nd of March and in other regions between the 24th and the 27th of March. The CI growth rate peaked in 87 out of 107 Italian provinces on average 13.6 days after the measures implementation. We projected that the CI growth rate in Lombardy should substantially slow by mid-May 2020. Other regions should follow a similar pattern. Our projections assume that the government measures will remain in place during this period. The evolution of the epidemic in different Italian regions suggests that the earlier the measures were taken in relation to the stage of the epidemic, the lower the total cumulative incidence achieved during this epidemic wave. Our analyses suggest that the government measures slowed and eventually reduced the Covid-19 CI growth where the epidemic had already reached high levels by mid-March (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto) and prevented the rise of the epidemic in regions of central and southern Italy where the epidemic was at an earlier stage in mid-March to reach the high levels already present in northern regions. As several governments indicate that their aim is to "push down" the epidemic curve, the evolution of the epidemic in Italy supports the WHO recommendation that strict containment measures should be introduced as early as possible in the epidemic curve.