Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols
Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols
复制标题
极端降水对温室气体和气溶胶辐射强迫的敏感性
DOI：
10.1002/2016gl070869
复制
发表时间：
2016-09-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Fu, Qiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Lei;Wang, Zhili;Fu, Qiang
温室气体和气溶胶是21世纪世纪最重要的两种人为强迫因子。预计21世纪人为气溶胶将从目前的水平下降，这将导致地球气候系统进一步变暖，从而加剧温室气体变暖造成的极端气候。我们使用地球系统模式集合模拟，研究了21世纪由人为温室气体和气溶胶引起的全球平均地表变暖的极端降水率的增加。与平均降水量相似，气溶胶强迫引起的极端降水量增加率明显大于温室气体强迫引起的极端降水量增加率。如果采用较低的温室气体排放路径，未来几十年气溶胶强迫在诱导极端降水变化方面可以发挥关键作用。我们的研究结果对气候适应极端降水事件的政策制定具有影响。
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar to mean precipitation, the increased rate of precipitation extremes caused by aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that caused by GHG forcing. The aerosol forcing in the coming decades can play a critical role in inducing change in precipitation extremes if a lower GHG emission pathway is adopted. Our results have implications for policy-making on climate adaptation to extreme precipitation events.