Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment
Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment
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货币联盟和货币危机：实证评估
DOI：
10.1002/ijfe.363
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
B. Coulibaly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Coulibaly
本研究使用1970年至1999年192个国家的面板数据和195次货币危机事件，考察了货币联盟成员国对经历货币危机概率的影响。参数和非参数估计都表明，货币联盟的成员资格降低了货币崩溃的可能性。这一发现对不同时间和不同地区的货币危机和汇率的各种定义都是可靠的。对加入或退出货币联盟的一些国家的案例研究进一步证实了这一结果。我们对这些发现的解释是，在关于稳定性和新金融架构的辩论中，不应排除货币联盟的形成。版权所有© 2008约翰威利父子有限公司。
Using panel data of 192 countries from 1970 through 1999, and 195 currency crisis episodes, this study examines the effect of membership in a currency union on the probability of experiencing a currency crisis. Both parametric and non-parametric estimates suggest that membership in a currency union reduces the likelihood of a currency crash. This finding is robust to various definitions of currency crises and exchange rates, across time, and across regions. The results are further confirmed by case studies of some countries that joined or left a currency union. We interpret these findings to suggest that the formation of currency unions should not be ruled out in the debate on stability and the new financial architecture. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.