Research on the relationship between rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration with multi-time scales
Research on the relationship between rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration with multi-time scales
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DOI：
10.1007/s10333-012-0338-y
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Jinping Zhang;Zhihong Ding;Wenlin Yuan;Q. Zuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jinping Zhang;Zhihong Ding;Wenlin Yuan;Q. Zuo
由于受傅里叶分析和小波基函数选取的限制，小波分析方法存在一定的不足。为此，应用经验模态分解方法分析了1959 - 2002年年降水量和参考作物蒸散量（ET 0）的波动周期和局部特征。对于变量之间的相关性，传统的时间序列分析方法往往假设数据序列是平稳的，从而导致“虚假回归”。因此，引入协整理论来描述降雨量与ET 0的长期均衡关系。最后，为了理解这两个变量之间的不确定性，使用集对分析（SPA）方法来呈现降雨量和ET 0的多时间尺度的同一性，差异性和相反。结果表明，降水与ET 0之间存在着复杂的关系，可能与厄尔尼诺、海气交汇、太阳活动有关。此外，降雨量和ET 0的波动周期也具有相似的短、中周期水平，而长周期水平略有不同。降水量与蒸发蒸腾量的变化主要表现为相反和不一致。这种关系将保持长期平衡。
Limited by Fourier analysis and the selection of different wavelet base functions, the wavelet analysis method shows some deficiencies. For that reason, the empirical mode decomposition method is applied to analyze fluctuating periods and local features of annual rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) from 1959 to 2002. With respect to the correlation between variables, the traditional time series analysis methods often assume that data sequences are stationary which result in “spurious regression.” Therefore, the cointegration theory is introduced to describe the long-term equilibrium relationship of rainfall and ET0. At last, to understand the uncertainty between these two variables, the set pair analysis (SPA) method is used to present the identity, discrepancy, and contrary of rainfall and ET0with multi-time scales. The results reveal that rainfall and ET0have a complex relationship which may be related to El Nino, air–sea intersection, solar activity. Moreover, the fluctuation periods of rainfall and ET0also have similar short and middle period level, and slightly different long period level. The changes of rainfall and ET0present mainly the contrary and the discrepancy. This relationship will remain a long-term equilibrium.