Intermediate-Term Medium-Range Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Prior to the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake
Intermediate-Term Medium-Range Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Prior to the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake
复制标题
2008年5月12日汶川地震前中期中程前兆加速地震活动
DOI：
10.1007/s00024-011-0413-0
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
吴忠良
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
蒋长胜;吴忠良
从地震活动性分析的角度研究大地震的可预测性，目前有两个问题存在争议，需要基于真实地震实例进行更详细的研究。第一个问题是是否存在地震活动的震前加速行为，该行为对地震事件采样的时空范围变化具有鲁棒性；第二个问题是这种加速行为是否与接近临界点有物理关联。为了回答这两个问题，我们利用1977年至2008年中国四川省和云南省当地地震目录（截止震级ML3.0）对2008年5月12日汶川地震进行了回顾性案例研究。结果表明，第一个问题的答案似乎是“是”；也就是说，在事件发生前的最后几年内，在有限的空间域内，可以观察到明显的加速地震活动。第二个问题的答案不能仅仅通过检查地震活动数据来获得。然而，对加速行为的详细分析揭示了加速区域和已知粗糙度之间潜在的空间相关性，这可能是观察到的加速度可能具有几何或机械而非统计起源的证据。
In the study of the predictability of great earthquakes in the perspective of seismicity analysis, two issues are presently controversial, and need more detailed studies based on real earthquake cases. The first issue is whether there exists pre-shock accelerating behavior of seismicity which is robust against the changing of spatio-temporal ranges for the sampling of seismic events, and the second is whether such an accelerating behavior is physically associated with an approach to the critical point. To answer these two questions, a retrospective case study was conducted on the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake, using the local earthquake catalogue in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, China, with cutoff magnitudeML3.0, from 1977 to 2008. The results show that the answer to the first question appears to be ‘yes’; that is, in a finite spatial domain within the last couple of years before the event, clear accelerating seismicity could be observed. The answer to the second question cannot be obtained merely by examining seismicity data. However, detailed analysis of the accelerating behavior reveals a potential spatial correlation between the accelerating region and a known asperity, which might be an evidence for that the observed acceleration may have a geometrical or mechanical rather than statistical origin.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
C. Bufe;S. Nishenko;D. Varnes
通讯作者：
C. Bufe;S. Nishenko;D. Varnes
DOI：
10.1002/cpe.1522
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience
影响因子：
--
作者：
Changsheng Jiang;Zhongliang Wu
通讯作者：
Changsheng Jiang;Zhongliang Wu
影响因子：
2
作者：
Changsheng Jiang;Zhongliang Wu
通讯作者：
Changsheng Jiang;Zhongliang Wu
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
T. Seher;I. Main
通讯作者：
T. Seher;I. Main
影响因子：
--
作者：
L. Knopoff;T. Levshina;V. Keilis-Borok;C. Mattoni
通讯作者：
L. Knopoff;T. Levshina;V. Keilis-Borok;C. Mattoni