Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future
Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-015-1584-x
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发表时间：
2016-10
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
X. Wen;G. Fang;Heshuai Qi;Lei Zhou;Yuqin Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Wen;G. Fang;Heshuai Qi;Lei Zhou;Yuqin Gao
对中国大陆的历史温度和降水极值及其未来可能的变化进行了量化和评估。一个基于广义极值分布的极端气候统计模型被应用于历史气候数据和偏差校正和空间分解（BCSD）降尺度耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）预测。结果表明，中国历史上相对温和的极端温暖条件，10年、20年和50年一遇的区域平均最高气温分别为28.9、29.4和29.8 °C，而相应的区域平均最低气温分别为-20.1、-20.8和-21.5 °C，呈向北下降趋势，极端寒冷天气的区域变化相对较大。历史降水极值也是由东南偏南向西北逐渐递减，区域差异明显。根据CMIP 5的预测，未来暖极端事件将加剧约1.66-4.92 °C，这表明与冷极端事件相比，暖极端事件的增长率和空间差异更大。极端降水量预计将增加7.9- 13.4%，干旱地区的增长率将高于湿润地区。辐射强迫浓度的增加将引起温度和降水极值的上升变化。同时，暖极端变化对辐射强迫浓度的响应比冷极端更敏感。CMIP 5对未来极端气温和降水的模拟基本保持了较好的模式间一致性，但暖极端的模式间差异大于冷极端。
Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 °C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are −20.1, −20.8, and −21.5 °C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66–4.92 °C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9–13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.