Prioritization of watershed management scenarios under climate change in the Jemma sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Prioritization of watershed management scenarios under climate change in the Jemma sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
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埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游流域 Jemma 次流域气候变化下流域管理情景的优先顺序
DOI：
10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100714
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yihun T. Dile
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gebrekidan Worku;E. Teferi;A. Bantider;Yihun T. Dile
研究区域埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游Jemma子流域。研究重点本研究开发了流域管理替代方案，可确保在不同气候情景下获得最佳气候变化适应效益。气候情景是使用统计偏差校正的多模式集合平均值和RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5排放情景制定的。气候变化对水文的影响是使用一个多尺度校准和验证的土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型进行评估。流域管理的替代品优先使用多标准的决策分析，通过层次分析法intercompared流域管理标准和替代品。新的水文insightsThe研究结果表明，一致下降的降雨量，地表径流量和总水量在所有气候情景和气候影响情景。集水结构是减少气候变化影响的最优先的流域管理替代办法。Jemma次流域一半以上的流域在基线和未来气候情景下非常适合就地集水。观测到的梯田和预期的原位集水结构显着（p < 0.05）减少地表径流，从而显着增加土壤水分在基线和未来的气候情景。然而，在气候情景下，原位和异地集水结构引起的总水量变化不大。我们的结论是，实施原位集水结构可以帮助增加绿色水，而不会减少蓝水。
Study regionJemma sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.Study focusThis study develops watershed management alternatives which can ensure optimal climate change adaptation benefits under different climate scenarios. The climate scenarios were developed using the statistically bias corrected, multi-model ensemble mean and the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The hydrological impact of climate change was assessed using a multi-gauge calibrated and validated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Watershed management alternatives were prioritized using a multi-criteria decision analysis which intercompared watershed management criteria and alternatives through the Analytic Hierarchy Process.New hydrological insightsThe findings showed a consistent decline of rainfall, surface runoff and total water yield under all climate scenarios and climate impact scenarios. Water harvesting structures were the most prioritized watershed management alternatives to reduce climate change impacts. More than half of the watersheds of the Jemma sub-basin are highly and optimally suitable for in-situ water harvesting under baseline and future climate scenarios. Observed terrace and anticipated in-situ water harvesting structures significantly (p < 0.05) reduced surface runoff and thereby significantly increase soil water under baseline and future climate scenarios. However, both in-situ and ex-situ water harvesting structures caused an insignificant change in the total water yield under climate scenarios. We conclude implementing in-situ water harvesting structures can help to increase green water without a decline in blue water.
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