COPING WITH A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON THE COLORADO RWER: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW1
COPING WITH A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON THE COLORADO RWER: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW1
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应对科罗拉多州 RWER 的严重持续干旱：简介和概述1
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Young
：在经济和人口快速增长的干旱地区，干旱的不利影响可能会越来越严重。这篇文章介绍和概述了本期《水资源公报》收录的论文。这些论文报告了美国西南部科罗拉多河流域潜在的严重持续干旱的影响和应对研究的第二阶段。这些分析是由来自该流域各地大学和私营部门的研究人员组成的联盟进行的。树木年轮研究表明，持续时间和规模都比现代记录中发现的任何干旱都严重得多的干旱很可能发生在更早的几个世纪里。以蓄水引水建筑物的现状和流域的经济条件为基点，本研究的总体目标有三个：第一，定义具有代表性的严重持续干旱(SSD)并评估其水文影响；第二，预测对美国西南部的经济、社会和环境影响；最后，评估应对SSD的替代制度安排。对影响和政策的评价采用了两种不同的建模方法。一种涉及水文-经济优化模型，其中水资源分配机构是决策变量。第二种是模拟游戏方法，允许代表每个流域州的“玩家”以实时决策模式互动，以应对正在展开的干旱。
: In arid regions of rapid economic and population growth, adverse effects of droughts are likely to be increasingly serious. This article presents an introduction and overview of the papers collected in this special issue of the Water Resources Bulletin. The papers report on the second phase of a study of the impacts of and responses to a potential severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern U.S. The analyses were performed by a consortium of researchers from universities and the private sector located throughout the Basin. Tree ring studies suggest that droughts of duration and magnitude much more serious than any found in the modern records probably occurred in the Basin during earlier centuries. Taking the present-day configuration of the storage and diversion structures and the economic conditions in the Basin as the base-point, the general objectives of the study are three: first, to define a representative Severe Sustained Drought (SSD) and assess its hydrologic impacts; second, to forecast the economic, social and environmental impacts on the southwestern U.S.; and finally, to assess alternative institutional arrangements for coping with an SSD. The evaluation of impacts and policies was conducted with two distinct modeling approaches. One involved hydrologic-economic optimization modeling where water allocation institutions are decision variables. The second was a simulation-gaming approach which allowed “players” representing each basin state to interact in a real-time decision making mode in response to the unfolding drought.