Stepwise capacity integration in port cluster under uncertainty and congestion
Stepwise capacity integration in port cluster under uncertainty and congestion
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.08.011
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发表时间：
2021-08-30
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Long, Jiancheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Liquan;Ng, Adolf K. Y.;Long, Jiancheng
港口能力整合对于缓解港口过度投资、防止海岸线资源和港口资产浪费具有重要意义。本文研究了不确定拥堵条件下港口群中的港口通过能力整合问题。基于实物期权理论，首次推导出了不确定条件下单个港口的最优投资和退出决策。建立了以最大折现期望收益为目标的产能分步投资与退出整合模型，并给出了相应的求解算法。通过对中国个别港口和环渤海港口群的实证研究，对模型和方法进行了论证和验证。结果表明，港口集群从港口整合中获得了比没有整合时更大的收益，在整合过程结束时港口集群的能力利用率提高了30%以上。在此基础上，提出了指导港口群港口运力整合的政策建议(包括统一的港口治理制度、港口价格调整机制、转移支付等)。
Port capacity integration is important for mitigating port overinvestment and preventing the waste of coastline resources and port assets. In this paper, we study the port capacity integration problem in port cluster under uncertainty and congestion. The optimal investment and exit decisions for individual ports under uncertainty are first derived based on real option theory. A capacity stepwise investment and exit integration model with the aim of achieving maximum discounted expected payoff is developed for the problem and the corresponding solution algorithm is proposed. Empirical studies regarding the individual ports and the Bohai Rim port cluster in China are conducted to demonstrate and verify the model and methods. The results indicate that the port cluster has achieved great benefits from port integration compared to the scenario without integration and the capacity utilization of the port cluster has increased over 30% at the end of the integration process. Furthermore, the policy implications for guiding the port capacity integration in port cluster (including unified port governance institution, adjustment mechanism of port price, and transfer payment) are proposed based on the empirical results.