Improvements of volcanic ash fall forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency
Improvements of volcanic ash fall forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency
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日本气象厅改进火山灰降落预报
DOI：
10.1186/s13617-014-0018-2
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Shimbori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yoshihiko Hasegawa;Akira Sugai;Yosuke Hayashi;Yuta Hayashi;Shoji Saito;T. Shimbori
自2008年3月以来，日本气象厅（JMA）运行了一个火山灰下降预报（VAFF）系统，以发布日本火山爆发后预计会有火山灰福尔斯下降的地区的预报。火山灰福尔斯的危害影响因所产生的火山灰数量而异，并对农业、通信和运输网络以及建筑物造成不同的后果。日本气象厅气象研究所最近修订了以日本气象厅区域大气传输模式为基础的预测技术，以便能够预测火山灰降落的数量和面积以及火山灰降落影响的地区。日本气象厅计划进一步改进自愿援助和家庭设施系统，以满足生活在活火山附近的人们的需要，并考虑到火山学、防灾、广播和医疗服务等领域的专家意见。改进后的VAFF系统将提供三种类型的信息：可能喷发前的定期信息，喷发后5-10分钟发布的简短初步预报，以及喷发后20-30分钟发布的全面预报。日本气象厅编制了一份附于火山灰下落表的表格，根据火山灰下落的不同数量对人类的危险影响进行分类，并就火山灰下落时应采取的准备措施和行动提供咨询意见。新的VAFF系统还将提供预期火山岩坠落区域的预测。JMA将于2015年春季开始运行新的VAFF系统。
Since March 2008, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has operated a Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) system to issue forecasts of areas in Japan where ash falls are expected following volcanic eruptions. The hazardous effects of ash falls vary according to the quantity of ash generated and have different consequences for agriculture, communication and transport networks, and buildings. The prediction techniques based on the JMA Regional Atmospheric Transport Model were recently revised by the Meteorological Research Institute of JMA to allow predictions of the quantity and areas of ash fall, and areas to be affected by lapilli fall. JMA plans further improvements to the VAFF system to address the needs of people living near active volcanoes and to take into account expert advice in fields such as volcanology, disaster prevention, and broadcasting and medical services. The improved VAFF system will provide three types of information: a regular information before possible eruption, a brief preliminary forecast issued 5–10 minutes after an eruption, and a full forecast issued 20–30 minutes after an eruption. JMA has developed a table to accompany VAFFs that categorizes the hazardous effects for people according to various quantities of ash fall, and provides advice on preparedness measures and actions to be taken when an ash fall occurs. The new VAFF system will also provide predictions of areas of expected lapilli fall. JMA will start operation of the new VAFF system in spring 2015.