Regular peaks and troughs in the Australian incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus (2000-2011)
Regular peaks and troughs in the Australian incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus (2000-2011)
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DOI：
10.1007/s00125-015-3709-2
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Davis, Elizabeth A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haynes, Aveni;Bulsara, Max K.;Davis, Elizabeth A.
目的/假设本研究的目的是确定2000 - 2011年澳大利亚0-14岁儿童1型糖尿病的发病率和发病率趋势。方法从全国（胰岛素治疗）糖尿病登记簿中确定0 ~ 14岁诊断为1型糖尿病的病例，确诊率为97%。计算年度年龄标准化、性别和年龄特异性发病率，并使用泊松回归分析按日历年、性别和诊断年龄划分的发病率。采用正弦和余弦函数对泊松回归模型进行3、4、5、6和7年周期的非线性时间趋势分析，并采用赤池信息准则评价拟合优度。结果2000年至2011年间，共登记了11,575例儿童1型糖尿病（6049例男孩和5526例女孩），平均发病率为23.6 / 10万人年（95% CI 23.2, 24.0）。男孩的平均发病率比女孩高4.9% （95% CI 1.1%, 8.8%）。与0- 4岁儿童相比，5- 9岁儿童的平均发病率高出65%，10- 14岁儿童的平均发病率高出208%。在两性和所有年龄组中，总体上观察到发病率的周期性变化为5年。仅在10- 14岁年龄组中观察到平均年发病率增加（每年增加1.2% [95% CI 0.4%, 2.1%]）。结论/解释澳大利亚儿童1型糖尿病的发病率趋势呈正弦曲线型。在澳大利亚范围内观察到的发病率趋势的5年高峰和低谷证实了先前在西澳大利亚报告的结果，需要进一步调查。
Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and incidence rate trends for type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged 0-14 years, Australia-wide, from 2000 to 2011.Methods Cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus diagnosed in 0- to 14-year-olds were identified from the National (insulin-treated) Diabetes Register, with a 97% ascertainment rate. Annual age-standardised, sex- and age-specific incidences were calculated and Poisson regression was used to analyse the incidence by calendar year, sex and age at diagnosis. Non-linear temporal trends were analysed using sine and cosine functions applied to Poisson regression models for 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 year cycles, and the Akaike information criterion was used to assess goodness of fit.Results A total of 11,575 cases (6,049 boys and 5,526 girls) of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus were registered between 2000 and 2011, giving a mean incidence of 23.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2, 24.0). The mean incidence was 4.9% (95% CI 1.1%, 8.8%) higher in boys than in girls. Compared with 0- to 4-year-olds, the mean incidence was 65% higher in 5- to 9-year-olds and 208% higher in 10- to 14-year-olds. A 5 year cyclical variation in incidence was observed overall, in both sexes and in all age groups. An average annual increase in incidence was observed only in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (increase of 1.2% per year [95% CI 0.4%, 2.1%]).Conclusions/interpretation A sinusoidal pattern was observed in the incidence rate trend of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Australia. The 5-yearly peaks and troughs in incidence rate trends observed Australia-wide corroborate findings previously reported for Western Australia and require further investigation.