Physical constrains and productivity in the future Arctic Ocean
Physical constrains and productivity in the future Arctic Ocean
复制标题
未来北冰洋的物理限制和生产力
DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2015.00085
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
I. Ellingsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Slagstad;P. Wassmann;I. Ellingsen
利用物理-生物耦合的SINMOD模式对整个北冰洋的物理海洋学和初级生产力、次级生产力进行了研究。为了获得21世纪气候变化影响的指标，变化的幅度，以及这些变化可能发生的时间和地点，SINMOD被迫采用国际气候变化专门委员会的缩小尺度气候轨迹，并采用A1B气候情景，该情景似乎预测本世纪末全球平均大气温度将上升3.5至4 ° C。据预测，北冰洋和邻近区域的物理海洋学的某些表层水特征将发生很大变化。最大的变化将发生在沿着太平洋的连续域，特别是关于大西洋水平流和流入陆架。冰的撤出将增加初级生产力，但分层将持续存在，或在大多数情况下，作为冰融化和沿流入大陆架的热变暖的函数而变得更强。因此，依赖养分的新产量和可收获产量不会随着光合有效辐射的增加而成比例地增加。初级生产力的最大增长出现在沿着北冰洋的欧亚周边地区（高达40 g C m-2 y-1），特别是在北方巴伦支海和喀拉海（40 - 80 g C m-2 y-1），那里冰层覆盖较少，意味着北极水较少，因此分层较少。沿着陆架断裂带，当冰盖向北退缩时，北冰洋上涌和垂直混合为真光层提供营养。到本世纪末，沿沿着北冰洋的欧亚周边的北极桡足类的产量将显著增加（2 - 4 g C m-2 y-1）。初级和次级生产力将减少沿着南部部分的连续平流域的太平洋和大西洋水，由于增加热分层。在北冰洋中部，由于分层引起的营养限制，初级生产不会增加很多。
Todays physical oceanography and primary and secondary production was investigated for the entire Arctic Ocean with the physical-biologically coupled SINMOD model. To obtain indications on the effect of climate change in the 21th century the magnitude of change, and where and when these may take place SINMOD was forced with down-scaled climate trajectories of the International Panel of Climate Change with the A1B climate scenario which appears to predict an average global atmospheric temperature increase of 3.5 to 4 °C at the end of this century. It is projected that some surface water features of the physical oceanography in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent regions will change considerably. The largest changes will occur along the continuous domains of Pacific and in particular regarding Atlantic Water advection and the inflow shelves. Withdrawal of ice will increase primary production, but stratification will persist or, for the most, get stronger as a function of ice-melt and thermal warming along the inflow shelves. Thus the nutrient dependent new and harvestable production will not increase proportionally with increasing photosynthetic active radiation. The greatest increases in primary production are found along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean (up to 40 g C m-2 y-1) and in particular in the northern Barents and Kara Seas (40-80 g C m-2 y-1) where less ice-cover implies less Arctic Water and thus less stratification. Along the shelf break engirdling the Arctic Ocean upwelling and vertical mixing supplies nutrients to the euphotic zone when ice-cover withdraws northwards. The production of Arctic copepods along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean will increase significantly by the end of this century (2-4 g C m-2 y-1). Primary and secondary production will decrease along the southern sections of the continuous advection domains of Pacific and Atlantic Water due to increasing thermal stratification. In the central Arctic Ocean primary production will not increase much due to stratification-induced nutrient limitation.