Disease threats posed by alien species: the role of a poxvirus in the decline of the native red squirrel in Britain
Disease threats posed by alien species: the role of a poxvirus in the decline of the native red squirrel in Britain
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268805005303
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Sainsbury, A. W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rushton, S. P.;Lurz, P. W. W.;Sainsbury, A. W.
在英国，红松鼠的数量正在减少。来自灰松鼠的竞争以及松鼠痘病毒(SQPV)携带的疾病被认为是决定下降的原因。我们分析了1993年至2003年这两个物种在坎布里亚的发病率和分布变化，并将其与基于个体的(IB)空间显式疾病模型的预测进行了比较，该模型模拟了松鼠物种和SQPV在景观中的动态。在过去的10年里，灰松鼠的数量增加了，而红松鼠的数量减少了。红松鼠的发病率与灰松鼠到达风景的时间有关。对其他地区红松鼠种群下降速度的分析表明，在灰松鼠种群中存在SQPV的地区，其下降幅度是不存在SQPV的地区的17-25倍。IB模型预测了同样在野外观察到的物种之间3-4年的空间重叠。当两个物种之间的接触率和感染率较低时，模型预测与观察数据最吻合。该模型预测，需要将灰松鼠数量控制在60%的有效杀伤率，才能阻止坎布里亚郡红松鼠数量的下降。
Red squirrels are declining in the United Kingdom. Competition from, and squirrel poxvirus (SQPV) disease carried by, grey squirrels are assumed to be determining the decline. We analyse the incidence of disease and changes in distribution of the two species in Cumbria, from 1993 to 2003 and compare these to the predictions of an individual-based (IB) spatially explicit disease model simulating the dynamics of both squirrel species and SQPV in the landscape. Grey squirrels increased whilst red squirrels declined over 10 years. The incidence of disease in red squirrels was related to the time since grey squirrels arrived in the landscape. Analysis of rates of decline in red squirrel populations in other areas showed that declines are 17-25 times higher in regions where SQPV is present in grey squirrel populations than in those where it is not. The IB model predicted spatial overlap of 3-4 years between the species that was also observed in the field. The model predictions matched the observed data best when contact rates and rates of infection between the two species were low. The model predicted that a grey squirrel population control of > 60% effective kill was needed to stop the decline in red squirrel populations in Cumbria.