Mid-Pliocene Climate Modelled Using the UK Hadley Centre Model: PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2
Mid-Pliocene Climate Modelled Using the UK Hadley Centre Model: PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2
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DOI：
10.5194/gmdd-5-837-2012
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发表时间：
2012-09
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
F. Bragg;D. Lunt;A. Haywood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Bragg;D. Lunt;A. Haywood
抽象的。上新世模型相互比较项目（PlioMIP）是古气候模型相互比较项目（PMIP）的一个子项目，其目标是比较尽可能广泛的大气环流模型对上新世中期气候的预测。上新世中期（3.3-3.0 Ma）是比前工业时代更温暖和大气二氧化碳浓度更高的最近持续时期，因此有可能为未来世纪气候变暖的预测提供信息。本文介绍了英国的贡献PlioMIP使用Hadley中心模式在大气模式（HadAM 3，PlioMIP实验1）和大气-海洋耦合模式（HadCM 3，PlioMIP实验2）。耦合模型预测，相对于对照组，整体变暖（3.3 °C）大于仅大气（2.5 °C）。北方半球纬向温度梯度是更大的耦合模式与温暖的赤道和寒冷的北极比大气的唯一的模式，这是受海洋表面温度从上新世代理重建。仅大气模式预测赤道降水和南亚季风强度减少，而耦合模式显示这些系统的强度增加。我们目前的敏感性研究，使用替代边界条件的上新世和控制模拟，表明上新世中期变暖的敏感性在工业化前和上新世中期气候的不确定性。
Abstract. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a sub-project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) whose objective is to compare predictions of the mid-Pliocene climate from the widest possible range of general circulation models. The mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) is the most recent sustained period of greater warmth and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration than the pre-industrial times and as such has potential to inform predictions of our warming climate in the coming century. This paper describes the UK contribution to PlioMIP using the Hadley Centre Model both in atmosphere-only mode (HadAM3, PlioMIP Experiment 1) and atmosphere-ocean coupled mode (HadCM3, PlioMIP Experiment 2). The coupled model predicts a greater overall warming (3.3 °C) relative to the control than the atmosphere-only (2.5 °C). The Northern Hemisphere latitudinal temperature gradient is greater in the coupled model with a warmer Equator and colder Arctic than the atmosphere-only model, which is constrained by sea surface temperatures from Pliocene proxy reconstructions. The atmosphere-only model predicts a reduction in equatorial precipitation and south Asian monsoon intensity, whereas the coupled model shows an increase in the intensity of these systems. We present sensitivity studies using alternative boundary conditions for both the Pliocene and the control simulations, indicating the sensitivity of the mid-Pliocene warming to uncertainties in both pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene climate.