Increasing the value of weather-related warnings
Increasing the value of weather-related warnings
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提高天气相关警报的价值
DOI：
10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
18.9
通讯作者：
Keller Julia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Qinghong;Li Liye;Ebert Beth;Golding Brian;Johnston David;Mills Brian;Panchuk Shannon;Potter Sally;Riemer Michael;Sun Juanzhen;Taylor Andrea;Jones Sarah;Ruti Paolo;Keller Julia
尽管在预报和应急准备方面取得了进步，但与天气有关的灾害仍然夺去了许多人的生命，使人们流离失所，并造成大范围的损害。因此，WMO（世界气象组织）WWRP（世界天气研究计划：https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwrp_new_en）于2016年建立了高影响天气项目（HIWeather），这是一个为期10年的研究项目（https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/hiweather-10-yearresearch-project）。 html）。继公里级数值天气预报和减少灾害风险方面的最新进展之后，HIWeather 旨在显着提高与天气相关的灾害预警的有效性。实施计划是根据预警链的概念制定的，其中包括成功天气灾害预警的所有组成部分和之间的联系：观测、天气预报、灾害预报、影响预报、预警生成和决策（图1）。成功的预警依赖于气象和相关物理科学产生的信息，因此其传递的有效性取决于社会、行为和经济科学的应用。 WMO 高影响天气项目研讨会于 2018 年 11 月 20 日至 22 日在北京举行，吸引了来自 25 个国家的 70 多名自然科学和社会科学广泛领域的科学家组成的多元化跨学科小组，会议期间对预警链的所有要素进行了批判性讨论。
Despite advances in forecasting and emergency preparedness, weather related disasters continue to cost many lives, to displace populations and to cause wide-spread damage. Therefore, High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather), a 10-year research project (https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/hiweather-10-yearresearch-project), was established in 2016 by WMO (World Meteorology Organization) WWRP (World Weather Research Program: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwrp_new_en. html). HIWeather aimed at achieving dramatic improvements in the effectiveness of weather-related hazard warnings, following recent advancement in numerical weather prediction at km-scale and in disaster risk reduction. The implementation plan was developed under the concept of warning chain, which comprises all components and the connections between to a successful weather-hazards warning: observations, weather forecast, hazard forecast, impact forecast, the generation of warnings and decision making (Fig. 1). A successful warning relies on information produced by the meteorological and related physical sciences, thus its effectiveness of delivery depends on applications of social, behavioral and economic sciences. The workshop of WMO High Impact Weather Project was held in Beijing during 20-22 November of 2018, attracted a diverse and interdisciplinary group of over 70 scientists from 25 countries in the broad field of physical and social science, during which all elements of the warning chain were discussed critically.