Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents
Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents
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DOI：
10.1126/science.280.5365.912
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发表时间：
1998-05-08
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Anderson, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gupta, S;Ferguson, N;Anderson, R
通过宿主免疫反应选择传播动力学的影响进行了分析，在广泛的一类抗原性不同的病原体。强选择可以使病原体群体稳定地分离成具有不重叠抗原库的离散菌株。然而，在广泛的中间选择水平上，菌株结构是不稳定的，以周期性或混乱的方式变化。这些结果对解释菌株或血清型丰度的纵向流行病学数据、设计监测策略和评估多价疫苗试验具有重要意义。
The effects of selection by host immune responses on transmission dynamics was analyzed in a broad class of antigenically diverse pathogens. Strong selection can cause pathogen populations to stably segregate into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires. However, over a wide range of intermediate levels of selection, strain structure is unstable, varying in a manner that is either cyclical or chaotic. These results have implications for the interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain or serotype abundance, design of surveillance strategies, and the assessment of multivalent vaccine trials.