The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes
The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aaz5548
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Faranda, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gualandi, A.;Avouac, J-P;Faranda, D.
慢地震与常规地震一样，都是由不稳定的摩擦滑移引起的。它们产生的滑动很少，因此可以经常重复。我们利用 2007 年至 2017 年间卡斯卡迪亚俯冲的滑移历史来评估它们的可预测性，在此期间，慢震多次使多个板块破裂。我们使用嵌入理论和极值理论来表征系统动力学。分析揭示了低维（
Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using the slip history of the Cascadia subduction between 2007 and 2017, during which slow earthquakes have repeatedly ruptured multiple segments. We characterize the system dynamics using embedding theory and extreme value theory. The analysis reveals a low-dimensional (