Analysis of COVID-19 under-reporting in Brazil
Analysis of COVID-19 under-reporting in Brazil
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DOI：
10.5935/0103-507x.20200030
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bozza, Fernando Augusto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Prado, Marcelo Freitas do;Antunes, Bianca Brandão de Paula;Bozza, Fernando Augusto
目的：估计巴西整体和各州的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例报告率。方法：我们使用巴西和各州报告的死亡人数以及世界卫生组织的预期病死率估计了COVID-19病例的实际数量。巴西的预期病死率也根据人口的年龄金字塔进行了调整。因此，通报率可以定义为确诊病例数（由卫生部通报）除以预期病例数（根据死亡人数估计）。结果：巴西COVID-19的报告率估计为9. 2%（95% CI 8. 8%-9. 5%），所有州的报告率均低于30%。巴西人口最多的州圣保罗和里约热内卢的报告率较低（分别为8.9%和7.2%）。报告率最高的是罗赖马州（31.7%），最低的是帕拉伊巴州（3.4%）。结论：结果表明，巴西的确诊病例报告率远低于我们分析的其他国家。因此，包括政府在内的决策者无法了解大流行的实际规模，这可能会干扰控制措施的确定。目的：估计2019年冠状病毒病的报告率（COVID-19）病例为巴西作为一个整体和国家。我们使用巴西和各州报告的死亡人数以及世界卫生组织的预期病死率估计了COVID-19病例的实际数量。巴西的预期病死率也根据人口的年龄金字塔进行了调整。因此，通报率可以定义为确诊病例数（由卫生部通报）除以预期病例数（根据死亡人数估计）。结果：巴西COVID-19的报告率估计为9. 2%（95% CI 8. 8%-9. 5%），所有州的报告率均低于30%。巴西人口最多的州圣保罗和里约热内卢的报告率较低（分别为8.9%和7.2%）。报告率最高的是罗赖马州（31.7%），最低的是帕拉伊巴州（3.4%）。结论：结果表明，巴西的确诊病例报告率远低于我们分析的其他国家。因此，包括政府在内的决策者无法了解大流行的实际规模，这可能会干扰控制措施的确定。
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the reporting rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for Brazil as a whole and states.METHODS: We estimated the actual number of COVID-19 cases using the reported number of deaths in Brazil and each state, and the expected case-fatality ratio from the World Health Organization. Brazil's expected case-fatality ratio was also adjusted by the population's age pyramid. Therefore, the notification rate can be defined as the number of confirmed cases (notified by the Ministry of Health) divided by the number of expected cases (estimated from the number of deaths).RESULTS: The reporting rate for COVID-19 in Brazil was estimated at 9.2% (95%CI 8.8% - 9.5%), with all the states presenting rates below 30%. Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the most populated states in Brazil, showed small reporting rates (8.9% and 7.2%, respectively). The highest reporting rate occurred in Roraima (31.7%) and the lowest in Paraiba (3.4%).CONCLUSION: The results indicated that the reporting of confirmed cases in Brazil is much lower as compared to other countries we analyzed. Therefore, decision-makers, including the government, fail to know the actual dimension of the pandemic, which may interfere with the determination of control measures.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the reporting rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for Brazil as a whole and states.METHODS: We estimated the actual number of COVID-19 cases using the reported number of deaths in Brazil and each state, and the expected case-fatality ratio from the World Health Organization. Brazil's expected case-fatality ratio was also adjusted by the population's age pyramid. Therefore, the notification rate can be defined as the number of confirmed cases (notified by the Ministry of Health) divided by the number of expected cases (estimated from the number of deaths).RESULTS: The reporting rate for COVID-19 in Brazil was estimated at 9.2% (95%CI 8.8% - 9.5%), with all the states presenting rates below 30%. Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the most populated states in Brazil, showed small reporting rates (8.9% and 7.2%, respectively). The highest reporting rate occurred in Roraima (31.7%) and the lowest in Paraiba (3.4%).CONCLUSION: The results indicated that the reporting of confirmed cases in Brazil is much lower as compared to other countries we analyzed. Therefore, decision-makers, including the government, fail to know the actual dimension of the pandemic, which may interfere with the determination of control measures.