Impact of vaccination by priority group on UK deaths, hospital admissions and intensive care admissions from COVID-19
Impact of vaccination by priority group on UK deaths, hospital admissions and intensive care admissions from COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1111/anae.15442
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发表时间：
2021-02-11
期刊：
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Roberts, J., V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cook, T. M.;Roberts, J., V
国家（和全球）疫苗接种为控制COVID-19大流行提供了一个机会，而社会封锁和个人行为改变的疾病抑制无法做到这一点。我们模拟了通过英国疫苗优先群体接种疫苗如何影响COVID-19的死亡、住院和ICU入院率。我们使用英国COVID-19疫苗交付计划和公开数据，按年龄组和疫苗接种优先群体估计英国人口，包括一线卫生和社会护理工作者以及被视为“临床极度脆弱”或“高风险”的个人。利用有关covid -19相关医院和ICU入院人数和死亡人数和分布的公开数据，我们按年龄组模拟了疫苗接种的影响。然后，我们修改了模型，以考虑医院和ICU的入院情况，以及卫生和社会护理工作者以及具有极端临床脆弱性和高风险的人群的死亡情况。我们的模型与政府对1-4组和1-9组接种疫苗后死亡率的估计非常吻合。该模型显示，疫苗接种对医院和ICU入院人数的影响要比对死亡人数的影响慢得多。早期优先考虑保健人员和临床脆弱病人，增加了疫苗接种对入院的影响，也保护了保健服务。当50%的成年人接种了疫苗——死亡人数减少95%，住院人数减少80%——这一拐点可能是重新评估疫苗优先次序的有用点。我们的模型显示，直到2021年3月底和4月，医院和ICU入院人数才会大幅减少。
National (and global) vaccination provides an opportunity to control the COVID-19 pandemic, which disease suppression by societal lockdown and individual behavioural changes will not. We modelled how vaccination through the UK's vaccine priority groups impacts deaths, hospital and ICU admissions from COVID-19. We used the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan and publicly available data to estimate UK population by age group and vaccination priority group, including frontline health and social care workers and individuals deemed 'extreme clinical vulnerable' or 'high risk'. Using published data on numbers and distributions of COVID-19-related hospital and ICU admissions and deaths, we modelled the impact of vaccination by age group. We then modified the model to account for hospital and ICU admission, and death among health and social care workers and the population with extreme clinical vulnerability and high risk. Our model closely matches the government's estimates for mortality after vaccination of priority groups 1-4 and groups 1-9. The model shows vaccination will have a much slower impact on hospital and ICU admissions than on deaths. The early prioritisation of healthcare staff and clinically vulnerable patients increases the impact of vaccination on admissions and also protects the healthcare service. An inflection point, when 50% of the adult population has been vaccinated - with deaths reduced by 95% and hospital admissions by 80% - may be a useful point for re-evaluating vaccine prioritisation. Our model suggests substantial reductions in hospital and ICU admissions will not occur until late March and into April 2021.