The economic impacts of carbon emission trading scheme on building retrofits: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings
The economic impacts of carbon emission trading scheme on building retrofits: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings
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DOI：
10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109311
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发表时间：
2022-06
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Yingli Lou;Yizhi Yang;Y. Ye;Chuan He;W. Zuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yingli Lou;Yizhi Yang;Y. Ye;Chuan He;W. Zuo
碳排放权交易计划作为一项广受欢迎的减排工具，除了节省能源成本外，还可能为业主提供经济激励，鼓励他们进行楼宇改造。然而，ETS带来的建筑改造的额外经济效益尚未得到定量调查。为了填补这一空白，本研究提出了一种系统的经济评估方法来调查ETS对建筑改造的经济影响。采用投资回收期的缩短和投资回报率的提高作为评价指标。本研究以中型办公楼为例，预测了ETS对美国四个地点建筑改造的经济影响，并调查了三种不同的碳价格。结果表明，碳价格对建筑改造具有显著的经济影响。由于预测的时变碳价格相对较低（每吨约10美元），碳排放交易体系对建筑改造的经济影响很小。当碳价格上涨时，每吨50美元（欧盟现行价格）的碳排放权交易体系的影响将达到25%，每吨100美元的碳排放权交易体系的影响将达到51%。化石能源密集区投资回收期和投资回报率的相对变化幅度较大，但对碳价格较为敏感。
As a popular emission reduction tool, the carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) can potentially add an economic incentive for building owners to retrofit buildings in addition to the cost savings in energy. However, the additional economic benefits of building retrofits brought by ETS has not been quantitively investigated yet. To fill this gap, this study proposed a systematic economic evaluation method to investigate the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits. The reduction of the payback period and the increase of the return on investment are adopted as evaluation metrics. Using medium office buildings as an example, this study predicted the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits at four locations in the U.S., and three different carbon prices were investigated. The results show that carbon prices have significant economic impacts on building retrofits. With the relatively low forecasted time-variant carbon prices (around 10 USD per ton), the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits are small. When carbon prices increase, the impacts of ETS would be up to 25% for 50 USD per ton (current prices in European Union) and 51% for 100 USD per ton. Furthermore, locations with more fossil energy have higher relative changes in the payback period and ROI but are more sensitive to carbon prices.