Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score
Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/qj.2284
复制
发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Friederichs, Petra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bentzien, Sabrina;Friederichs, Petra
本研究通过分位数分数（QS）的分解，扩展了概率天气和气候预测的验证方法。QS是一个适当的评分函数，并评估一组预测-观察对的预测分位数。我们介绍了一个分解的QS的可靠性，分辨率和不确定性，并讨论了分解的偏差。此外，分位数预测的可靠性图。验证QS及其分解说明降水预报来自中尺度天气预报集合COSMO-DE-EPS的德国气象局。我们认为，QS是准备成为流行的Brier分数在预测验证。
This study expands the pool of verification methods for probabilistic weather and climate predictions by a decomposition of the quantile score (QS). The QS is a proper score function and evaluates predictive quantiles on a set of forecast-observation pairs. We introduce a decomposition of the QS in reliability, resolution and uncertainty and discuss the biases of the decomposition. Further, a reliability diagram for quantile forecasts is presented. Verification with the QS and its decomposition is illustrated on precipitation forecasts derived from the mesoscale weather prediction ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Meteorological Service. We argue that the QS is ready to become as popular as the Brier score in forecast verification.