An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data
An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data
复制标题
使用最新实时潮汐计数据改进潮汐预测的实证方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alan Hisscott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Hibbert;S. Royston;K. Horsburgh;H. Leach;Alan Hisscott
调和潮汐预测方法在河口常常是有问题的，因为浅水潮汐波动的失真，导致预测的海平面和观测的海平面之间的差异。英国国家潮汐和海平面设施试图减少预测误差的短期预测高水位（HW）极端使用三种替代技术的谐波方法在布里斯托通道，预测误差相对较大。一个简单的程序来纠正谐波法HW预测使用最近的观测（称为经验校正法）证明是最有效的，也成功地应用于海平面记录从42的44个英国验潮站网络的位置。它将被纳入英国海岸监测和预报伙伴关系的业务系统，以改善英国的短期海平面预测。
Harmonic tidal prediction methods are often problematic in estuaries owing to the distortion of tidal fluctuations in shallow water, causing disparity between predicted and observed sea levels. The UK National Tidal and Sea Level Facility attempted to reduce prediction errors for the short-term forecasting of High Water (HW) extremes using three alternative techniques to the Harmonic Method in the Bristol Channel, where prediction errors are relatively large. A simple procedure for correcting Harmonic Method HW predictions using recent observations (referred to as the Empirical Correction Method) proved most effective and was also successfully applied to sea-level records from 42 of the 44 UK Tide Gauge Network locations. It is to be incorporated into the operational systems of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Partnership to improve UK short-term sea level predictions.